Edo Sham Poll: UN Must Safeguard Nigeria’s 2027 Presidential Election

 By Olu Fasan

Outrageous! How dare you say the United Nations should help run elections in Nigeria, a sovereign state? That’s how some will react to this intervention. But leaving aside the fact that countries often seek United Nations electoral assistance, what’s truly outrageous and utterly shameful is that Nigeria, so-called “Giant of Africa”, cannot conduct free, fair and credible elections, something less endowed African countries do routinely and successfully.

*INEC Chair, Yakubu and Tinubu

This week, on October 1, Nigeria turned 64 as an independent nation. Sadly, it’s 64 years of sham elections and hollow democracy. As John Campbell and Matthew Page said in their book, Nigeria: What Everyone Needs to Know, “massive election rigging has been characteristic of Nigeria since independence”.

Some used to say that if the military had not intervened in 1966 and 1983, Nigeria would have become a strong democracy through learning and experience. But Nigeria has had 25 years of uninterrupted civil rule since 1999, with seven presidential elections and countless state and local government polls. Yet, Nigeria’s “democracy” has matured not an iota. Rather, it’s been endless cycle of deeply flawed and massively rigged elections.

For instance, when Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, all the 36 state governorship elections were held on the same day. However, due to widespread rigging and, of course, judicial activism, eight state governors were removed from office, leading to “off-season” elections, whereby gubernatorial polls in eight states are held on different dates from that of the remaining 28 states. 

But for the Supreme Court’s unwillingness to remove a sitting president from office, some presidents would been sacked on the ground of being invalidly elected to the office, which nearly happened to President Umaru Yar’Adua, who only scaled through with a startlingly close four to three majority decision by the Supreme Court in 2007.

Which brings us to Nigeria’s latest sham poll: Edo State governorship election held on September 21. Now, let me say categorically that I have no vested interest in who is Edo State governor, provided he was elected in a free, fair, transparent and credible election that reflected the genuine will of the people. 

Unfortunately, the Edo election was anything but credible. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Monday Okpedholo, candidate of All Progressives Congress, APC, won, with 291,667, while Asue Ighodalo, of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, lost, with 247,274. But credible independent observers overwhelmingly rejected the results, alleging they were altered during the collation process. 

Tom Stoppard, the British playwright, famously said: “It’s not the voting that makes a democracy; it’s the counting.” That was true in the Edo poll. The voting itself was generally peaceful. But while the collation initially went on smoothly, INEC abruptly terminated it and, with the help of security officials, sent journalists, observers and party agents out of the collation centre. 

It doesn’t take a genius to know that something fishy was going on. Before the collation was truncated, results from 12 of the 18 local governments showed the PDP candidate was leading by 6,323 votes. But after the collation resumed several hours later, the APC candidate led by 44,393 votes and was declared the winner.

The reports of the independent observers were damning. Situation Room, a civil society coalition, said several of the results were altered, adding that the poll lacked credibility. Yiaga Africa, another reputable election observer, condemned the actions of “biased INEC officials who altered figures during the collation”, and “security officials who interfered with the collation process.” Like Situation Room, Yiaga Africa believed there were “significant concerns about the credibility and integrity of the collation process”.

To be sure, all major parties rig elections in Nigeria. It is always competitive rigging, and the winner is the party that controls the electoral body. Thus, in local government elections, the state governor, who controls the state independent electoral body, SIEC, always wins all the local governments for his party, as Governor Godwin Obaseki did in last year’s Edo council poll when he won all the state’s 18 local governments for his party, PDP. 

But when it comes to governorship elections, the party that controls the centre can use federal might to capture any state, if the stakes are high enough. That, presumably, is what APC did in Edo State, a critical South-South state, in last month’s governorship election. The president appoints the INEC chairman as well as the resident electoral commissioners and, truth be told, can manipulate them, not to mention the security agencies. So, brazen abuse of incumbency and state resources is the singular reason elections are never free and fair in Nigeria.

Which brings us to 2027 and the need for United Nations assistance. Let’s face it, the 2027 presidential election will be a “do-or-die” affair. Bola Tinubu, the buccaneering president, and his hatchet men like Nyesom Wike will do everything to stay in power by hook or crook. But the main opposition parties, stung by the experience of 2023, will take nothing for granted. The situation will be extremely volatile and will call for active international involvement.

Those who take umbrage at the idea of the United Nations helping to safeguard the integrity of the 2027 presidential election should remember that the only free and fair presidential election since 1999, which led to the peaceful transfer of power from one party to another, was conducted under the watchful eye and close vigilance of the world. Never in any previous presidential election in Nigeria did the UN and Western countries take such an extraordinary interest as they did in the 2015 presidential election, with minute-by-minute monitoring, intelligence sharing and pre-emptive public interventions.

Interestingly, leaders of the then insurgent opposition APC called for the international interventions. They shuttled between Washington, London and Brussels, lobbying Western governments to help ensure the will of the people prevailed in the election. However, now in power, APC and its Tinubu-led government will vehemently reject international involvement in the 2027 presidential poll. Yet, if they love Nigeria, they will request United Nations assistance in the crucial election.

According to the UN, “more than 115 countries have requested and have received United Nations electoral assistance since 1991”. Such assistance includes technical support, organisation and conduct of an electoral process, supervision of elections, and verification of an electoral process. But UN assistance is usually predicated upon a Member State’s request.

Of course, constitutionally, only INEC can conduct presidential and governorship elections in Nigeria. But nothing stops Nigeria from requesting other UN assistance, such as technical support, supervision and verification of the electoral process. 2027 will be a make-or-break year for Nigeria. Tinubu must let the world help avert an Armageddon, as it did in 2015!

*Dr. Fasan is a commentator on public issues