By Owei Lakemfa
The new military rulers in Niger Republic, the country which marked independence day on Thursday, August 3, 2023 have a Sunday ultimatum from the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS. It is that they give up power and restore elected President Mohammed Bazoum to power or face serious measures, including possible invasion.
ECOWAS also imposed sanctions, including border closures, a no-fly zone and the freezing of Nigerien assets. The options seem to be that if former Presidential Guard head, General Abdourahamane Tchiani and his boys do not give up power by that day, ECOWAS would either add more sanctions and pressure, or invade Niger. The issues are, however, not as straight forward; there are many complications, including foreign interests.
As for war, you
can only know its beginning, not how it will end; the logic of war is that it
has no logic except death and destruction. For instance, ECOWAS can invade
Niger only to also be faced by the armies of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and
Algeria. Nigerian soldiers can be sent into Niger, only to find out that they
are essentially continuing France’s unholy wars of occupation, domination,
exploitation, theft and assassination of uncooperative leaders in Africa.
The new leaders in Niger accuse France of planning to invade the country
because they have asked French troops to leave the country. France has refused
to either confirm or deny the allegation but it will be logical for France to
want to hold on to Niger after its troops have been kicked out of Mali and
Burkina Faso. Those expulsions leave France with only two major military bases:
Niger and Chad. In comparison with these, the other French military bases in
Africa such as Cote d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Senegal and Gabon, are small.
While ECOWAS motives may be
pure, its signals can sometimes be confusing. For instance, the envoy it sent
to Niger is Chadian coup plotter, General Mahamat Idriss Deby from Chad, a
country that is not even a member of ECOWAS. Mahamat was seven when his father,
Idris Deby overthrew the Chadian government. In preparing Mahamat to take over
the Chadian government, Deby made his son a General at 26. Deby transitioned
into an ‘elected’ president with a constitution.
When he died on April 19, 2021,
constitutionally, the Speaker of the National Assembly, Haroun Kabadi was to
act as President for 40 days after which fresh elections were to be held. But
Mahamat next day overthrew the government, sacked the executive, dissolved parliament
and suspended the constitution. The international custodians of democracy
generally gave a nod to the coup. France was more direct. Its Foreign Minister,
Jean-Yves Le Drian, said the coup was justified on the basis of security,
adding that overthrowing democracy in Chad was acceptable as: “There are
exceptional circumstances.”
Big Brother Nigeria also
supported the Chadian coup. Its then Foreign Minister, Geoffrey Jideofor
Onyeama, said Nigeria supported the coup because it does not want a power vacuum.
Then Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari followed up by inviting Mahamat to the
Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja where the young General in uniform with
military boots thudding the floor, was given a red carpet. Buhari assured him:
“We will help you in all ways we can.”
So, what is the logic in
anti-coup ECOWAS sending a coup plotter to meet a fellow coup plotter in
neigbouring Niger? Is it to set a thief to catch a thief or in the hope that
General Mahamat would take advantage of esprit de corps to persuade the
Nigerien military to restore constitutional rule; the very thing he has for two
years refused to do in Chad? The reason why the Chadian military would not
allow democracy of the ballot box is because it is controlled by a tiny ethnic
group, the Zaghawa or Beri, which is one per cent of the population but has
been in power for the past 33 years.
While the motives of ECOWAS
might be pure, those of some of its leaders at the meeting may not be. For
instance, President Alassane Dramane Ouattara of Cote d’Ivoire whose dedication
to France is not in doubt, is in his third term in office when the country’s
constitution provides for a maximum two terms. Another ECOWAS leader is
Togolese President Faure Gnassingbe who has been in power for 18 years now.
When his father, former Sergeant Gnassingbe Eyadema died on February 5, 2005
after 37 years in power, Faure overthrew the elected Togolese government.
He was in power for 20 days
before installing a puppet, Bonfoh Abass in office for 68 days, after which he
returned to power. Can the son of a coup plotter, and a coup plotter in his own
right, really be against coups? Those who advocate the immediate invasion of
Niger may be oblivious of the fact that President Bazoum, his family and some
officials of the Niger administration are being held by the coup plotters; or
would they be mere collateral damage?
In my
analysis, were there to be an invasion, Nigeria will play a lead role. Yet, its
military is bogged down by secessionist violence in the South-East, terrorists
in the North-East, armed militia storming through the Middle Belt and bandits
rampaging throughout the country, especially in Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara and
Niger states. So, would it be wise to pull out troops from this same military
and send them into Niger with which we share a 1,000-kilometre border?
In any case, should an heavily
indebted Nigeria, unable to maintain vital subsidies for its populace, spend
resources sending and maintaining troops in a foreign country? If the money
comes from other countries, at what costs and what guarantees? On the other
hand, the invasion of Niger can be sourced to Chad, whose French-backed
military is essentially mercenary which has fought in countries like Mali and
the Central African Republic, and can source troops from its Zaghawa kith and
kin in Darfur, Sudan.
Also, before we invade Niger,
let us think through some basic facts. First, the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso
and Niger are said to be in response to Islamic jihadist movements. These
terrorist movements have their ancestry in the Mujahedeen created by the Unites
States and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bin Laden’s Al Qaeda grew
out of that Mujahdeen.
Then the West with its Gulf
allies created the Islamic State, ISIS, which spilled out of control, spreading
terrorism to various countries, including Mali where the Nigeria Boko Haram
members were trained, financed and armed. Yet, another vital link. The West
bombed Ghadafi and his government out of existence turning Libya not just into
a basket case, but also the source of free arms and itinerant terrorists.
Before we invade Niger, let us pause and think. Dacor (Okay?)
*Lakemfa is a commentator on public issues
No comments:
Post a Comment