Four Biggest Losers Of 2023 General Elections

 By Michael Owhoko

Real losers of the 2023 Nigerian general elections are not the electorate who were deprived of their rights to freely choose candidates of their choice nor the first-timer youth who were disappointed by the Nigerian state nor the candidates who lost or won as declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC.

*Yakubu and Buhari 

The biggest losers are President Muhammadu Buhari; INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu; President-elect, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu; and Nigeria as a political entity. Except for Bola Tinubu who carries the burden of legitimacy arising from what is perceived as a flawed process and total miniature votes garnered, the others will live with the scar and collective guilt slammed on the country by ethical deficit in the delivery process of the elections.

With general disenchantment over the conduct of the 2023 general elections by over 145,000 national and foreign observers deployed across the country, INEC failed to leave a split opinion on its capacity to conduct free, fair and credible elections, a development that will haunt Yakubu, Buhari and Nigeria for a long time to come. The exercise was not only a horrendous phenomenon on the psyche of Nigerians but a fleeting nightmare.  

A consensus negative opinion on the flawed elections by the European Union, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS; the Commonwealth; the International Republican Institute, IRI; the National Democratic Institute, NDI; Joint Election Observation Mission, JEOM; four former African presidents, and Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), is an affirmation of global skepticism about Nigeria’s reputation.  They all concluded that the electoral process lacked transparency, which encouraged manipulations and undermined voters’ confidence.

This trust deficit was also highlighted by Chatham House when it declared that INEC had learnt nothing from its past failures.  Specifically, it said, “The INEC’s performance and controversies over these results mean that the electoral reforms and lessons declared to have been learned were not fully applied and, as an electoral body, it was significantly less prepared than it claimed.”

As a consequence of these opinions, President Buhari might have missed the opportunity to etch his name in gold over his failure to provide a secured and enabling environment for free, fair and credible elections.  As Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, he failed to optimally use his offices, including effective deployment of the police, army, DSS, and other security agencies to protect voters during the elections. 

Nigerians were mortified by horrendous images of election violations, and no rationalisation could justify such criminal acts. An election where about 27 persons were killed nationwide over violence, ballot snatching, thuggery, voters’ suppression, ethnic bigotry, use of tribal gods and deities, even in the presence of security operatives in some instances, can only be a national shame.  

 

Besides, whatever is left of Buhari’s legacy might have been further weakened by the naira redesign and currency swap policy which brought untold hardship to citizens during the elections. Perhaps, the intention of the policy was to eliminate monetary inducement and vote-buying, unfortunately, Buhari and the Central Bank of Nigeria were outwitted by politicians through the use of extra-constitutional and procedural means to contrive and achieve sinister objectives. 

For the INEC Chairman, Prof. Yakubu, there might be no second opportunity to redeem his character. With a budget of over N305 billion and other sundry support, he had no reasons to have failed. Yakubu gave assurances during both local and international events, including Chatham House, of his Commission’s preparedness, pledging that with use of technology, including Bimodal Voter Accreditation System, BVAS, results would be transmitted in real-time to INEC Result Viewing Portal, IReV.

These assertions receded into irrelevance when INEC failed to comply with the Electoral Act and its own guidelines. The Electoral Act 2022, requires INEC to upload the elections of polling units in its portal as stipulated in Section 60 (5) and Clause 38 of the INEC Regulations and Guidelines.

Specifically, Clause 38 of the INEC Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of Elections, 2022 states: “Upon completion of all the Polling Unit voting and results, procedures, the Presiding Officer shall :-(i) Electronically transmit or transfer the result of the Polling Unit direct to the collation system as prescribed by the commission. (ii) Use BVAS to upload a scan of ES8A to INEC Result Viewing Portal, IReV, as prescribed by the commission. (iii) Take the BVAS and the original copy of each of the forms in tamper-evident envelope to the Registration Area/Ward Collation Officer, in the company of security agents. The polling agents may accompany the Presiding Officer to the RA/Ward Collation Centre.”

With non-compliance and deviation from these regulatory provisions, INEC opened the electoral process to manipulations, resulting in a lack of justice and fulfillment for voters.  

These violations have exposed existential gaps in the capacity of INEC under Prof. Yakubu to deliver on a significant national assignment. This might cast aspersion on his reputation and capabilities. Indeed, this election is a minus for his profile, as no government or any serious organisation may want to entrust him with such responsibilities in future.  

Unfortunately, the President-elect, Bola Tinubu, is a product of INEC’s flawed process, and this has triggered a legitimacy challenge that is further fuelled by the lean number of votes secured at the election relative to total votes cast.

Tinubu polled 8.87 million (the least by any presidential candidate since 1999), representing 36.61 per cent of total votes, and 10.08 per cent of all eligible voters. Out of approximately 93 million registered voters, only about 25 million, representing 28.63 percent, actually turned out to vote.

*Owhoko is a commentator on public issues