By Obi Nwakanma
The election season geared
towards electing a new president for Nigeria is now upon us. In about two
weeks, according to the rules of the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC),
the official bar on campaigns will be lifted, the whistle will then blow for
the parties now currently on their marks, to take off. This campaign season is more a mile race than a dash. For those
who do long distance races, they understand that they must pace themselves:
know when to conserve energy, keep an even pace and stay in the race, do not
lag, pick up speed towards the final laps, and end with a blinding finish.
No one runs the Mile race as though they were doing the 100 Meters dash. Sprinters, especially very experienced ones, learn very quickly, the strength of their opponents, their speech, and most importantly, how to bank against the direction of the wind, or sail with it.
The coming political campaigns remind me of Stanley Ngwaba, that elegant stallion on the tracks, do the 400 meters race on the “Lower Fields,” at the Government College Umuahia, to win the Victor Ludorum during the Inter House Sports Competition.
The point is, the magic is in the pace. That’s what will make
the difference in this campaign season: which campaign can last; which gets
exhausted and implodes; which would be wound than sooner by scandal, and which
would embrace the tape by gathering momentum. The facts are yet to fully
emerge, but it does seem that Peter Obi currently has momentum. This is going
by the online footprints of his supporters. But his opponents are equally
right, it just has to be seen whether this online momentum can translate into
votes.
But so far, Obi and Datti Ahmed are leading a youthful surge
that feels already like a movement. His opponents have tried to contain him;
even going so far as to suggest that his support base is mere figment, and of a
digital abracadabra that can only be tested when the polls open. Fair enough.
But there is momentum, and only the blind can fail to see this. It was this
momentum that led the Campaign strategists at the APC to attempt to derail Obi
through all kinds of politricks, including some say, planting stories in dodgy
online sites and piggying it back to Peter Obi’s supporters just to discredit
Mr. Obi.
They have tried to place the tar of “Biafra” on Obi. They have
thus far, put on the back burner, the dispute between Mr. Atiku Abubakar of the
PDP and Mr. Bola Tinubu, their APC candidate, who have both accused each other
of lying. That is pretty serious stuff. But neither of these campaigns are yet
on solid ground, enough to achieve an initial goal: to make this election a
two-horse face off between the APC and the PDP – the two traditional parties,
who claim to have long standing “structures.”
But so far, it seems that Peter Obi’s Labour Party is the new
kid on the block. It has surged into a mass movement with very visible
grassroots networks, the kinds that neither APC nor PDP have been able to
build. They have been unable to build a grassroots base because they have long
depended on “middle man” politics; that is politics of third-party
representation. You pay off a man who then pays off a few other men. That has
been the party.
Actually, in spite of their claims to having party structures,
neither the APC nor the PDP has real, self-sustaining structures. They do not
have self-sustaining structures because they have not developed solid loyal
bases of party adherents who would pay dues, volunteer their free time and
resources, and engage in selling the ideas of the party to new members whom
they could canvas or recruit. Neither the APC nor the PDP actually have the
structures they claim they have. They do not have these because they are the
party of oligarchs.
These
oligarchs have built a system of the oligopoly whose general idea for power is
to create intermediaries to the people rather than build ideas on which people
can recreate and view themselves in the political process. This is where the
Obi Campaign seems to have created the current wave on which it is riding: it
is propelled by a grassroots structure which is self-determined.
But
this movement could very well peter out if it is not fully guided with
institutional capacity; a well-administered agency of well-trained party
stewards and field staff. But that is not the only point. They point for all
the parties is in the sustenance of the key issues of this campaign. Last week,
Mr. Bayo Onanuga, Campaign Communications Director of the Tinubu Campaign reacted
to what he called a dubious use of “fake news” by Peter Obi’s supporters and
the use by the same Obi supporters of scurrilous methods to attack the person
of Tinubu. Onanuga called for an issue-based campaign.
Of
course, while calling for clean, issue-based campaigns, Onanuga could not help
himself: he took a dig at Peter Obi’s candidacy, inferring that the website
which had produced the “fake news” which Onanuga found disheartening was by an
“IPOB” front. In sum, Peter Obi was an IPOB candidate. The method Onanuga was
using is well-known in propaganda. It is called “disinformation.” You keep at
it, till it catches fire and acquires the shin of truth. I would like to say,
nonetheless, that Mr. Onanuga is right. This campaign must be issues based.
I
am with Bayo Onanuga on this. The great issues in this campaign are quite
clear: what do the parties bring to the table. There three key parties in this
election, the LP, the PDP, and the APC, and possible “dark horse,” the NNPP.As
the Campaigns kick off, Nigerians are going to need answers on key issues that
currently dog Nigeria, and which any winner of the 2023 elections must have to
conform head on: one is, the question of Energy Independence. In spite of being
a major oil and Gas producing nation, Nigerians experience scandalous shortages
of fuel. Nigerian does not produce its own oil for domestic consumption. It has
to import fuel. It is scandalous an inexplicable.
The
deep muck called the Nigerian oil industry must have to be cleaned up. How does
the next president intend to handle the question of subsidies, a most troubling
issue for Nigerians. How would Mr. Obi for instance, campaigning under the
platform of Labour deal with the issue of ending subsidies; an issue on which
he would be at logger heads with his own party.
This
one issue might be Peter Obi’s albatross. How is it that Nigeria has not
diversified its energy supply base.
For
a country that lies smack on the equator, there is no clear solar power policy
as an alternative to fossil fuel. For a country with a long Atlantic coast,
Nigeria has no Hydroelectric power policy. There is of course, the Mambila
power project, but Nigeria sits by the great sea, which can power hydroelectric
systems as well as wind turbines. How would the incoming administration
construct a bold and comprehensive energy policy and deploy a bold and coherent
energy plan to deliver energy goals that would power a productive economy?
Given the environmental dimensions of energy production, what would be the
Environmental policy, given the short and long term realities of global
warming?
How
would the new government address its implication for Nigeria’s economy; its
food security; its demographic shifts, etc.? Another important issue is the
current national debt profile. Nigeria has finally borrowed itself to coma.
This is not just a debt overhang.
This
is a debt-suicide. The economic policies of this current administration of
Buhari and the APC has borrowed Nigeria into a ditch. Nigeria’s debt must be a
key or central issue of debate in this election. How do these candidates hope
to govern with this kind of debt profile. How do they hope to get the Buhari
administration to account carefully for these debts; the borrowings and what
was done with them?
The
government of Nigeria under the APC administration has borrowed so much, but
Nigerians do not see the direct results in investment. Our oil trade receipts
are zero. And the question which the candidates of this election must answer
is, how can Nigeria not post any revenue from oil in spite of the rise in demand
for oil, and the spike in oil prices to over $100 BPD.
Given
the totality of the scenario, what does the APC seeking re-election with Tinubu
its presidential candidate, and leading architect of the current APC government
in 2015 and 2019, wish to do differently from the party and the president whom
he has backed to the hilt? Every now and then, the APC will say, “we have done
in the area of infrastructure, “ and they mention roads and bridges, some of
which were already paid for and mobilized by the Jonathan administration under
the PDP. This claim must no longer be allowed to be made unchallenged.
Besides,
one take at the looks of the infostructure of Nigeria’s National Universities,
or public schools, one is forced to ask: where are the infrastructures that
this administration claims to have improved. The environments of our
universities; our Federal Medical Centers; our National infrastructure – roads,
bridges, and ports are in decay. The Nigerian built space is in decay; in worse
condition that it was ever before Buhari came to office.
I
came to Abuja in February, it was hardly like he Abuja I came to in 2014. The
great capital city under Buhari looks poorly served. Its vibrancy is gone. So
where are the infrastructures? Candidates must address the question of
Nigeria’s National Infrastructure and the built space.
*Nwakanma, a poet and scholar, is a commentator on public issues
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