Nigeria Doesn’t Need A Military Coup; It Needs Enlightened, Active Citizens

 By Olu Fasan

However much the Presidency tried to explain away President Bola Tinubu’s last-minute cancellation of this year’s Independence Day parade, it was clear that something was amiss.

For such a milestone as Nigeria’s 65th independence anniversary, it was beyond belief that the president would abruptly ditch the parade on the strange excuse that the Armed Forces should not be sidetracked from fighting terrorism, as if the entire military would be on the parade ground. An intelligent guess would suggest that President Tinubu was probably warned against appearing in public because of an attempted coup d’etat. Put simply, he was apparently alerted to danger ahead and shielded from it. 

Yet, even as rumours of a coup plot became rife, the Defence Headquarters, DHQ, repeatedly denied it. The DHQ dismissed the suspicious arrest and detention of 16 military officers as mere “issues of indiscipline and breach of service regulations.” But it soon became clear that these were not mere issues of indiscipline when the names and profiles of the officers, led by a Brigadier-General, were released and published in the newspapers, all linked to allegations of attempted coup. Subsequently, the number of officers detained for what had become known as “alleged coup” reportedly rose to 42.

While all that was going on, President Tinubu sacked, and replaced, all the service chiefs he appointed just under two years ago, after coming to power. As the saying goes, “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck”. This goes beyond a matter of conjecture. The preponderance of the circumstantial evidence, from the cancellation of the Independence Day parade to the detention of over 42 military officers and the sacking of the service chiefs, points, inevitably, to a coup attempt, however inchoate. 

But if that were the case, if there was indeed an attempted coup, then the simple truth is that it won’t be strange. The right response is not to think that any government in the developing world can banish attempted coup d’etats. What a government can do is to make such attempts so unattractive, and so unpopular with society at large, as to always to fail embryonically. Think about it. Everyone hails 26 years of uninterrupted civil rule in Nigeria. 

Yet, there have been countless allegations of attempted coups during this period, even under former military rulers-turned-civilian presidents. When General Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military head of state, became a civilian president in 1999, one of his first acts was to retire several senior officers deemed to be politically ambitious and, thus, potential coup plotters. Even so, Obasanjo had to keep a watchful eye and a firm grip on the military. He simply could not trust them to behave themselves and safeguard Nigeria’s fledgling democracy!

In 2022, a former spokesman of the Nigerian Army, retired Brig-Gen Kukasheka Usman, said that the former Chief of Army Staff, retired Lt-General Abdulrahman Danbazau, while in office, resisted pressure to overthrow then - President Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, there were failed coup attempts under Jonathan. What about President Muhammadu Buhari, another former military ruler, himself a coup veteran? Well, there were at least six different allegations of coup attempts under him. In 2017, the then Chief of Army Staff, General Tukur Buratai, said “some individuals have been approaching some officers and soldiers for undisclosed political reasons”, a euphemism for a coup plot. Tinubu, then only APC National Leader, issued a statement, warning: “Those trying to entice the military out of the barracks: Don’t try it!”

So, what’s my point? Even though the military finally returned to the barracks in 1999, after their 29 years sojourn in politics (1966-1979; 1983-1998), it can never be guaranteed that some politically ambitious soldiers won’t attempt to seize power, often encouraged by disgruntled civilians. In 2023, I wrote a piece titled, “Coups in Africa: It’s time politicians accepted soldiers as rival for power” (Vanguard, September 21, 2023). I argued that politicians must govern with their eyes wide open and know that their real adversaries are restless and ambitious soldiers. What we have seen across Africa over the past few years confirms that the military sees itself as the alternative government, believing it’s the ultimate guarantor of the state when things go terribly wrong in the political system.

Since 2019, there have been successful coups in Sudan, Mali, Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon and, recently, Madagascar, prompting the fear of a “coup contagion” in Africa. In all the coups, the soldiers cited political and governance failures. A few years ago, General Ibrahim Babangida, a former military head of state and coup veteran, made the same point in an interview with journalists. “Let me give you a lesson today,” he told his interviewers. “A coup comes about if there is frustration in the society,” he said, adding emphatically: “Just get that right.” Put simply, there is a strong nexus between militarism, on the one hand, and political instability and social discontent, on the other.

Unfortunately, Nigerian democracy and political system have not developed robust in-built resilience and resistance to military adventurism. Conventional wisdom says that if the military had not intervened in 1966 and in 1983, Nigeria’s democracy would have truly matured. Indeed, the Electoral Reform Committee, headed by retired Justice Muhammadu Uwais, a former Chief Justice of Nigeria, made that point in its report (the “Uwais Report”), saying: “The years of military rule impeded the development of democratic institutions and leaders and hampered the emergence of a true democratic culture.” But given that Nigeria has now had 26 unbroken years of civil rule, why are Nigeria’s “democratic” institutions still so utterly weak? Why is the political system still totally dysfunctional? And why have selfless and public-spirited political leaders not emerged? 

Truth is, if there were a successful coup in Nigeria today, the coupists would justify their intervention on almost the same reasons given by the coupists of 1966 and 1983, even though they would end up failing in government like the military did during the periods 1966-1979 and1983-1998 when they held sway in the Nigerian political firmament. Sadly, it’s a vicious cycle. For when politicians replace soldiers after persistent call for return to democracy, they, too, end up failing like the military regime they replaced, fuelling frustration.

But in a true democracy, frustration cannot justify a military intervention because under such a democracy, citizens, frustrated as they may be, can hold their government accountable and ventilate their frustration through protests and other legitimate means. Sometimes, such pressure from the people works. For instance, last week, President Tinubu did a remarkable U-turn over his recent controversial state pardons because the public outrage was just too deafening to be ignored. Sadly, most times in Nigeria, such legitimate, albeit feisty, pressures and criticisms don’t work as they are met with authoritarianism, state coercion and victimisation.

Yet, a powerful antidote to military interventions is an enlightened and active citizenry that can act as a bulwark against bad governance, and a responsive and accountable government. When that combination exists, there’s no fertile ground for military adventurism. Why? Because the citizens can fight their corner and don’t need a helping hand from restless and politically ambitious soldiers! 

*Dr Fasan is a commentator on public issues