Nigeria: Has The Economy Stabilised?

 By Nick Dazang  

Leaders, like all mortals, experience fear. But most of them do not show it. In tempest and in turbulence, leaders must exude calm. They do so less their citizens find recourse in despair or paralysis. Which explains why at the height of the Great Depression, President Franklin Delano Roosevelt assured Americans, in his first inaugural address on March 4, 1933, that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself”.

“Perhaps, borrowing from this tendency, of leaders to show outward calm in the face of grave difficulties, our President, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on assumption of office, elected not to raise the alarm about the economy. Even though the data and reality prevailing at the time suggested that our economy had taken a dark turn, he preferred to be taciturn. Instead, his proxies and allies, such as Senators Adams Oshiomhole and David Umahi,  and Governor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, were forthcoming. They took turns to paint the economy in the colour of crimson. “But shortly before he jetted out on annual leave, the President was suddenly effusive. Not only that, he was upbeat. He said, in unmistakable terms, that the economy was out of the woods.

While hosting members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, and the Buhari Support Organisation, BSO, President Tinubu said that on account of prudent management, his government had met its revenue target, and that the country was no longer borrowing locally. His words: ”The economy is stabilised. Nobody is trading pieces of paper for exchange rate anymore. When I took over it was  1.9; now it is 1.35, 1.45. It has been stabilising there. People can now predict. You don’t have to know a Cardoso(CBN Governor) before you access foreign exchange for your exports…”

The President repeated this refrain on the same day(Tuesday, September 3, 2025) when His Imperial Majesty, Oba Ghandi Afolabi Oladunni Olaoye, Orumogege III, the Soun of Ogbomosho, led a delegation to the Presidential Villa. He enthused: ”The bleeding has stopped. The hemorrhage is gone; the patient is alive”.

“To buttress these claims, and to suggest that the economy was going North, the presidency and its enablers pointed at other economic indicators. Our foreign reserves, which were hitherto fast depleting, and threatened the Letters of Credit being extended to our importers, had reached a peak of $41.10 billion at the end of August. They touted a whopping N20.59 trillion, said to have been garnered in the last eight months.

Additionally, and following the withdrawal of fuel subsidy, the 36 states of the Federation are said to receive more than twice their statutory monthly allocations. “If the economy has stabilised, as touted by the President and his handlers, why is the country going on a borrowing binge? Since his advent to power, the Tinubu administration has obtained a total of $3.957 billion in foreign loans(including the recently approved one of $1.08 billion) and our public debt, which is fast becoming an albatross, stands at $94.23 billion or N144.67 trillion. 

It is instructive that not all of these foreign loans are being invested in strictly productive sectors of the economy. They are, therefore, not likely to impact the economy positively.

Pray, if the economy has stabilised, why are our ordinary folks a sorrowing? By the accounting of the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, in 2022, not less than 63 per cent of Nigerians, representing 133 million of the population, were multi-dimensionally poor. With the withdrawal of fuel subsidy, and the further impoverishment of Nigerians, only God knows the number that has been added to this army of the miserable.

If the economy has stabilised, and the government has harvested N20.59 trillion revenue in eight months from non-oil sources, why has this not translated in a significant improvement in the weal of Nigerians? “If truly the 36 states of the Federation are getting twice their allocation in the aftermath of the withdrawal of fuel subsidy, why do we only see the construction of fancy and white elephant projects such as fly overs, with under-passes, for good measure, and the vainglorious renovation of Government Houses? 

What happened to construction of schools, hospitals, rural roads and houses for struggling citizens? Is it not shameful to tout our foreign reserves, now put at $41.10 billion, as an accomplishment when even the savings of Harvard University is put at $53.26 billion and Nigeria is not among the first 45 countries in the global ranking for foreign reserves? If our economy has stabilised, why do 80 million Nigerian youths stomp the streets without jobs? 

If the economy has stabilised, why is electricity generation – which is a potent driver of economic growth – still stagnating at 4,500 megawatts? “If the Nigerian economy has stabilised, why are contractors, in their numbers, picketing the Ministry of Finance for non-payment of jobs duly executed? “If the economy has stabilised, why is the government raising all kinds of bonds, including that of N758 billion, to pay pensioners under the Contributory Pension Scheme, CPS? If the economy has indeed stabilised, why is the manufacturing sector, which holds the potential of creating jobs and earning hard currency, in the throes of death? 

Truth be told, we are still in the doldrums. The patient may have survived. Even then, his convalescence, in the Intensive Care Unit, ICU, is fraught with danger. The sooner we come to terms with this reality or get down to brass tacks, the better. Resorting to hyperbole, or painting a rosy picture, will hardly obscure the grimness of the situation. 

If care is not taken, this tendency to put a spin on every facet of our affair will lower the near-sacredness and credibility of the presidency. It will present it, not only as a purveyor of fairy tales, but cast it as out of sync with reality and the dire challenges Nigerians face. Millions of Nigerians are hurting and the country is in a terrible place.

*Dazang, a public affairs analyst, wrote from Abuja