The Pain And Power Of ‘One Chance’ Governance

 By Dan Onwukwe

Have you ever had the misfortune of boarding a ‘one-chance’ bus anywhere in Nigeria?  Coming to terms with ‘one chance’ bus is a traumatic experience. Reliving such ordeal is like been in kidnappers’ den. But, what really is ‘one-chance’ bus? In Nigerian pidgin English coinage, it’s a situation where someone has been tricked or scammed. It often involves a deceptive or dangerous situation, particularly transportation. It makes escape by the victim difficult, if not impossible. I had been a victim of ‘One chance’ in Lagos.     

*Akpabio, Abbas and Tinubu

On a fine rarefied late Saturday evening December on 21, 2002, the harmattan haze had just set in, making visibility poor. I had closed from work as Sunday Editor, Champion newspaper, along Ilasamaja/Oshodi expressway. The stress of editing a weekend newspaper had weighed heavily on me.

I was looking forward to getting to my house  to grab some sleep. Right at the Ilasa bus-stop where I was waiting, a yellow-painted, 14-seater hiace bus pulled by. The bus ‘conductor’ was shouting, ‘Mile 2, mile 2’. That’s the route to my destination. I hurriedly entered, oblivious of what was about to happen few minutes later.       

As I took a quick look at the ‘passengers’ on board, I was scared, but it was too late for me to escape. They have got me. I was held by the neck as they wanted to strangle me. I lost my voice instantly. I was disposed of all valuables – my phones and money. I was pushed out of the bus, and the driver zoomed off. By this time, it was close to 12 midnight. But, the good news is that I survived to tell my ordeal. I have since learned the hard way, that in  life, everything lost can be regained.                

The above is just a background to the effect that, as it’s in a ‘one chance’ bus, so also is a ‘one chance’ in governance. Sadly, that’s where Nigeria and Nigerians are right now. In governance , the meaning of ‘one-chance’ is even more profound, with incalculable, unpleasant consequences. In the context of governance, the metaphor of ‘one chance’ often signifies the opportunity or the ‘honeymoon’ given to a newly- elected government to demonstrate its effectiveness in delivering dividends of democracy it has promised the people.  But this government has turned out to be a deception, a scam of some sort. In other words, it implies that the initial actions and policies are crucial for setting a positive tone and establishing credibility.              

But when the government in power fails the test, it’s no better than a ‘one chance’ bus. You see, public trust is essential for effective governance. Now, enters APC government and President Tinubu. The party and the President as the leader, is a case study in boarding a ‘one chance’ bus. If a government fails to deliver on its campaign promises, or if its actions and policies are perceived as dishonest or incompetent, it will be difficult to regain public support. Early success can help a government build political capital, which is the ability to legislate policies and achieve goals.  

Conversely, early failures can deplete political capital, making it harder to govern. From day one, May 29, 2023, that very moment when Tinubu declared “subsidy is gone”, he lost that critical moment for Nigerians to be receptive to his “Renewed Hope” agenda, which has turned out to be what it is – a political demagoguery, a huge deception. Since then, a series of inexplicable, inadmissible errors of judgement have been made that have squeezed Nigerians into unprecedented hardship never experienced since the present democratic dispensation. But, that is what ‘one chance’ leaders do: they don’t believe that the way to win the presidency is to go directly to the voters, and the people. Rather, they believe in raw power and unleashing state machine.   

That, in practical terms entails compromising relevant democratic institutions. In that way, they translate the hopes and fears of the people into victories long before the first ballot is cast. In the recent gale of defections of opposition party members,  to the ruling APC, have you heard any  APC chieftain  mention the voters as critical to the outcome of the next election in 2027? 

This is why: we are in an era of ‘strongmen’ in politics, where voting your conscience is a disqualifying offence. ‘One chance’ leaders believe in old-fashioned politics. Sometimes, ‘one chance’ leaders draw from the “Madman theory” as offensive weapon, with unpredictable, inconsistent pattern of behaviour that requires elaborate series of deals, choice appointments , and contracts to cronies, family members and business associates. 

Real issues that can strengthen democracy no longer matters, neither is the fulfillment of campaign promises. Again, research has shown that ‘one chance’ or deceptive leaders can be identified by their excessive promises that are never meant to be kept. Recall that top of Tinubu’s manifesto priority list of action plans include national security, reviving the economy, power  supply, transportation, agriculture through mechanised farming by assisting farmers to achieve food security, fostering a new society, strengthening the naira and our way of life, and unwavering commitment to treating every Nigeria with equal respect and due regard.   

Two years after, which of these promises has been fulfilled? You answer. Instead, what we have seen is a tendency to blame others for their own failure. This government is accused of suppressing dissent and criticism. The focus is on personal enrichment rather than public good. They behave like Emperor Nero who fiddled when Rome burned. Tinubu has been indifferent to the suffering of Nigerians. His administration is alleged to be undermining democratic institutions that ought to hold officeholders accountable. What does it mean to think like a leader? All our political leaders care about is, it’s my turn(‘emilokan’). Truth is, in leadership position, knowing where you are going gets you there faster.                        

Without that thought, that vision, a leader can’t transform anything, no matter how hard he tries. In other words, leadership without understanding the basics of management encourages a disconnected style. This is where I’m going. Many notable Nigerians have urged president Tinubu to heed calls and act fast to end economic hardship across the land. They have expressed  deep concerns that our nation is drifting dangerously, and Tinubu remains unconcerned, behaving like the ‘Animal Farm’, that timeless classic novel by famous George Orwell that’s a reflection on politics, power, and the tyranny of human nature.   

Beyond that, President Tinubu is yet to break the habits that are  doing him no favours. According to American billionaire entrepreneur, Warren Buffett, “habits either move us forward or hold us back”. One of the habits that is not doing Tinubu any favour is his ineffectual style of governance, that approximates to boarding a ‘one chance’ bus. In recent times, and with the benefit of hindsight, a lot of people have argued that if Buhari was bad, Tinubu has become much worse. Reason: Tinubu lacks the five essential mind-sets of an effective leader and manager of men and resources. As experts in leadership say, “action without reflection is thoughtless, and reflection without action is passive”.       

In real terms, any good leader has to find a way to combine these two mind-sets – to function at the point where reflective thinking meets practical doing. Mind-sets are like threads and leaders like weavers. Asking why Tinubu has remained passive, deeply unconcerned about making better things happen in Nigeria and for Nigerians, revolves around this scale: he often  acts alone, very languid, with little or no consultation. 

He devotes little time thinking or reflecting deeply before implementing vital economic policies. A leader who acts on his impulses can run the country aground. We are familiar with the destructive power of hubris in politics. There may be no way out of the hole Nigeria is right now until this government admits its mistakes and initiates policies that will mitigate the suffering that Nigerians.       

*Onwukwe is a commentator on public issues