By Olu Fasan
The title of this intervention is hedged with the word “theoretical”. That’s because the proposition that former President Goodluck Jonathan could return to power in 2027 is patently far-fetched and improbable: therefore, although there’s logic to the proposition, it’s purely theoretical.
Indeed, Jonathan’s wife, Patience, put it unequivocally when she said recently that her husband would never go back to Aso Rock, and that she would campaign vigorously for the re-election of President Bola Tinubu. The bond between the Tinubus and the Jonathans is so strong, Mrs Jonathan implied, that it would be a betrayal if her husband ran against President Tinubu in 2027.
Yet, everyone must take the effusive avowal of loyalty to Tinubu with a large pinch of salt. Tell me, would Jonathan pass up the opportunity to emulate his good friend, President John Mahama of Ghana, who returned to power for a non-consecutive term after being defeated for re-election? Of course, Jonathan would like to be the Mahama of Nigeria! Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, Jonathan seriously considered throwing his hat in the ring, despite Tinubu’s presidential ambition.
He told a group of
supporters: “The political process is ongoing. Just watch out!” He held a
two-hour meeting with a group of nomadic pastoralists who vowed to raise N100m
to buy him APC’s presidential nomination forms and also held a closed-door
meeting with the then national chairman of APC, Abdullahi Adamu, apparently
exploring the possibility of the party adopting him as its consensus candidate.
Truth is, Jonathan is still licking the wounds of his defeat in 2015 – the
first president to be denied a second term – and would like to redeem his
bruised image.
In May 2022, I wrote a column titled “The monumental shaming of Jonathan, Emefiele” (Vanguard, May 19, 2022). It was in response to the underhanded attempts by Jonathan and Godwin Emefiele, then governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, to enter the presidential race. I started the piece thus: “Here is the award for the ‘Most Disgraceful Political Behaviour’ ahead of 2023. And the joint winners are: Goodluck Jonathan, former president of Nigeria, and Godwin Emefiele, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.”
So, if I held those views about Jonathan’s attempt to return to
power in 2023, why am I now suggesting he might be a good choice for the
presidency in 2027? What changed? Well, what changed is the political reality
of 2027. There are many aspects of that reality, but the starting point is that
the presidency should and will remain in the South in 2027. Put differently,
whatever political alignment or realignment is currently going on, the truth is
that the President of Nigeria after the 2027 presidential poll will still be a
Southerner!
Thus,
former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar would be wasting his political energy if
he is building a political coalition ahead of running for president for the
seventh time in 2027, aged 80. The noblest and most dignified position for
Atiku in 2027 is to be a kingmaker, a bringer of change, without being the
change itself. Indeed, intelligent and wise-hearted Northerners should know
that it is in the North’s enlightened self-interest, and Nigeria’s best
interest, to keep the presidency in the South in 2027, knowing that the North
will have it in 2031 for eight years on a platter of gold! Why disrupt the
rotational arrangement and heat up the polity instead of waiting for just four
more years after 2027? As I said, intelligent, wise-hearted and patriotic
Northerners know better, and the North will bide its time in 2027!
However, having said that the presidency must remain in the South in 2027, the next question is: must it also remain in the South-West? Well, let’s be clear. Although Tinubu campaigned on Emi-lokan/Yoruba-lokan platform in 2023, his position was that the presidency should only rotate between the North and the South, not among the six geopolitical zones. Surely, if power were to rotate among the geopolitical zones, then the South-West should have ceded the presidency to the South-East in 2023, given that the South-East was the only geopolitical zone in the South that had not produced president since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999.
So, while the
presidency must remain in the South in 2027, it doesn’t have to remain in the
South-West; another geopolitical zone in the South can complete the South’s
remaining four years! Of course, some Yorubas will turn the race into an ethnic
battle, insisting a Yoruba president must be allowed to do two terms, but the
intelligent, wise-hearted and patriotic know that the slot belongs to the
South, not specifically to the South-West.
But if the 2027 presidential slot belongs to the South, should Tinubu remain president after May 2027? Well, I leave that judgment to the North, the ultimate kingmaker in 2027. But here’s my preliminary thought: if in just two years in office, Tinubu has so personalised power and captured the Nigerian state, if he has arrogated unprecedented powers to himself and deployed them so whimsically and self-servingly, one must be filled with dread about what would happen if he was in power for eight years.
The Nigerian president is vested with unfettered
powers, but Tinubu is not a leader who checks himself in the exercise of those
powers. The words “playing God” are frequently used to describe Tinubu, and
there’s some truth in it. But, as I said, it’s for those who have the votes to
decide whether to sack or retain Tinubu in 2027. My argument, however, is that
if they choose to sack him, they have two other Southerners to choose from:
Goodluck Jonathan and Peter Obi!
Unfortunately, the cards are stacked against Obi. If he runs for the presidency in 2027 and wins, he can only do one term in office. That’s because, undoubtedly, power must return to the North in 2031. Obi himself seems to realise this. For earlier this week, he said he would only run for one term. But that vow smacks of desperation and stretches credulity. Why would he do one term when he’s constitutionally entitled to two?
By 2031, he would only be 70, so why is he
promising to do only one term except as a desperate political calculation? Obi
is giving hostages to fortune and potentially poses a risk to Nigeria’s
political stability with the one-term-only vow. Assuming a President Obi
unprecedentedly decides not to seek a second term in 2031, imagine the tension
that would be generated by his loyalists, hangers-on, ethnic base and
“Obidients”, who would pressure him to do two terms, and the North, which would
pressure him to honour his vow. Can Nigeria afford that?
Well,
enters Jonathan. Constitutionally, he can only serve for one more term. His
presidency would be devoid of the tensions associated with a second term bid.
He will seamlessly hand over to a Northerner in 2031. If the North is fed up
with Tinubu but considers Obi’s one-term-only vow too risky, they might turn to
Jonathan. Just a theory, but one with logic to it!
Dr. Fasan is a commentator on public issues
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