How 2023 Will Affect Nigeria’s Political Stability For Decades

By Olu Fasan

Nigerians, it seems, have moved on from the political events of 2023. Some are already talking about, others planning for, 2027. But the thoughtful and perceptive will not easily forget 2023. For the events of that year will have far-reaching consequences that could unsettle Nigeria for decades. As someone who is heavily invested in Nigeria’s political development, my concern here is how the events of 2023 could deepen Nigeria’s instability, while hoping an alternative aftermath would avert that dreadful political trajectory. 

For a start, following the Supreme Court verdict, Bola Tinubu is now the de facto and de jure president of Nigeria, leaving aside the philosophical question about the nature of his mandate. However, his presidency sets Nigeria on an unstable political future on two key fronts, both regarding the management of Nigeria’s diversity. This may not matter now, it will at some point. But before we come to that, there’s the more imminent problem of the 2027 presidential election. In one sense, 2027 will be like 2015; in another, it won’t. In both senses, 2027 will be acutely challenging. Here’s why.

Abuja’s Special Constitutional Status And Why It Is Not A State

 By Sola Ebiseni

Contrary to wild assumptions for and against, Section 134 (1) (b) or 134 (2) (b) which deals with the requirements of 25 per cent of the votes cast at the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, as a prerequisite for declaring a candidate winner of the Presidential election in Nigeria, has never been directly and purposely interpreted by our courts. This is because no one has ever been declared President without having scored 25 per cent of the votes cast in the FCT to invoke the jurisdiction of the court to interpret the section accordingly.

It is a cardinal principle of our jurisprudence that courts do not indulge in speculative or academic matters. Its authoritative jurisdiction is invoke to interpret live issues. Thus, none of the cases so far cited from the varied opinions is precedent for our purpose. As stated by the Supreme Court in a plethora of cases “the decision of a court must always be considered in the light of its own peculiar facts or circumstances. No case is identical to another, though they may be similar. 

Five Challenges Buhari Should Tackle Now

By Martins Oloja

President Muhammadu Buhari, leader of the most populous black nation on earth, may not be well aware of what most of the citizens are saying at this time about his administration and how far they think he can take Nigeria. It is indubitable that most president’s men tell any president-in-council what they think he would like to hear. Presidential aides and even most cabinet members are not known to be ready to tell the president any inconvenient truth that can strain the relationship. What is more, our leaders at all levels like sycophants and mediocrities to be around them. 

*President Buhari 

But despite overt hostility to even groundswell of opinion and wise counsel, I think we should continue to wish our leaders well by advising them on what we think they should do for our public good. We should not be weary in doing good, despite their poor attitude to reading and listening. That is why I would like to join good people who have been suggesting some priorities to our leaders, especially since the build-up to the 59th anniversary of our independence early this month. 

Is Christopher Okigbo’s Star Here Again With Us?

By Banji Ojewale

“An old star departs, leaves us here on the shore, gazing heavenward for a new star approaching. The new star appears, foreshadows its going, before a going and coming that goes on forever…”

— Christopher Okigbo, in Path of Thunder

*Okigbo 

Nigeria appears to be falling again under the excruciating spell of a star presaged by this remarkable poet of limitless possibilities.

At the time Christopher Okigbo wrote the poem shortly before his death in 1967, the young republic had writhed in a series of setbacks dating from the Western Region upheavals. Okigbo had a keen mind that correctly interpreted these crises as the shadows of some bigger, more devastating whirlwind into which we were being drawn. 

As Buhari Fights Corruption Without A Strategy

By Chidi Anselm Odinkalu  

President Buhari’s much-advertised fight against corruption has degenerated into a demolition derby. As happened with many previous efforts to fight corruption in Nigeria, different outposts of power and influence in the president’s coterie appear determined to use anti-corruption as a cover to settle intra-palace scores.

*Buhari 

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), headed by an acting chairman, is pursuing the prosecution of the President of the Senate before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT). While those proceedings end, the Senate, whose President is accused of corruption by the EFCC, has declined confirmation of the acting Chairman of the EFCC, citing a report by the State Security Service (SSS), which accuses the nominee of abuse of power and of human rights. These allegations of human rights abuse against the EFCC’s acting Chairman are made without any hint of irony by an SSS that has earned a dismal reputation for respecting only court orders that it likes or in favour of only those it approves of.

Meanwhile, the judiciary, many of whose senior-most officers have become objects of ridicule at the instance of the EFCC and the SSS, must somehow bring itself to arbitrate with a straight face the winners and losers in this squalid mess.

To some, this report card is evidence that there are no sacred cows in this “fight” against corruption. It is indeed easy to mistake injury for progress when the goals are unclear and a strategy is non-existent. There surely is a fight but it is increasingly difficult to sustain the idea that it is President Buhari’s fight or indeed a fight for the interest of Nigerians.

To be sure, this is not the first time an administration will be up-ended by those supposed to implement its proclaimed commitment to fighting corruption. In 1970, General Yakubu Gowon declared that he would “eradicate corruption” from Nigeria within six years. It was an impossible mission proclaimed with the starry-eyed certitude of a 35 year-old intoxicated with power unmitigated by experience. Four years later, Godwin Daboh, instigated, it was suspected, by then Governor of Benue-Plateau State, Joseph Gomwalk, published an affidavit listing sundry allegations of corruption against Gowon’s Communications Minister, Joseph Tarka. Gowon’s indecisiveness turbo-charged the allegations. By the time Tarka was eventually forced to resign, Gowon’s commitment to fighting corruption looked terminally hypocritical. Less than one year later, Murtala Muhammed intervened to put the Gowon regime out of its misery.