Niger Delta: Buhari’s Unwinnable War

By Ray Ekpu  

The Federal Government of Nigeria is amassing troops, arms and ammunitions in the oil-rich Niger Delta region in readiness for war with the militants who have been destroying oil infrastructure. In the last week of last month, the Director of Army Public Relations, Col. Sani Usman, announced that the military had launched “a precursor operation” to a planned offensive codenamed “Crocodile Smile.” This is aimed at supporting a wider operation codenamed “Operation Delta Safe.”

Most people in the Niger Delta have condemned the activities of these militant groups which are now sprouting like mushrooms and making both sensible and senseless demands. The Niger Delta people have suffered a lot since the discovery of oil in 1956. Their environment has been savagely spoilt. Their fishing waters and farming lands have vanished leaving them impoverished. Strange diseases have emerged that apparently have no cure. The reckless activities of these militants have done considerable damage to the Niger Delta ecosystem apart from the loss of oil revenue to the Federal Government. The Niger Delta leaders are pleading with these militants to give a peace a chance since the Federal Government is offering them the peace reed.

A few weeks ago, Alfred Diete Spiff, a former military governor of the old Rivers State who is now a traditional ruler, had a meeting with Niger Delta leaders in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State. A couple of weeks later, Edwin Clark, a former Federal Information Commissioner and a prominent leader in the region, also had a conference in Warri, Delta State, trying to find ways of resolving the matter without bloodshed. On his part, the Minister of State for Petroleum, Ibe Kachikwu, has been touring the region in search of an amicable solution to the conflict.

Since President Muhammadu Buhari has said he is interested in a negotiated settlement of the matter I think the soldiers who are in the creeks of Sapele itching for action should tarry a while. Before hostilities begin, let me warn that this is an unwinnable war. No one will win. The militants will not win and the Federal Government will not win either. Men, women and children will be killed and maimed, property will be destroyed, the environment will be damaged. No oil will be produced because oil companies do not work with soldiers holding guns to their heads. The price of crude oil will go up but Nigeria will not benefit from the rise in price while the fight goes on in the creeks. New refugees will emerge; we will look for food, shelter and medicine for a new set of internally displaced persons (IDPs). We will then go looking for money to rebuild what has been destroyed in an economy that is already suffering from asphyxia. The only winners will be the generals who will be doing arms deals, food supply deals, drug supply deals and the women who will be available, willingly or unwillingly, to comfort the troops during the war. Crocodile, don’t smile yet. Keep your teeth hidden.